Lessons learned…

JW
Oct 9
8 min read

Updated: Oct 14

...that are now vital to successfully address the dire global situation

"Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood. All is riddle, and the key to a riddle is another riddle."

Ralph Waldo Emerson

2021 = 2091

The avalanche of extreme weather events expected for the 2090s happening NOW: 70-year timelines up in smoke, flushed down flash floods or parched in droughts = utter Emergency, tipping points passed, “Nowhere is safe” - “GHG levels are already too high for a manageable future for humanity” *
There is no “getting back to normal” - we are in uncharted territory.
2021 and 2022 IPCC Reports: 1.5 degrees C warming limit bound to be breached well before 2040. New fossil fuels projects set to emit > 425Gt GHGs, enough to push world well over 2 degrees C warming.** Major impacts inevitable and irreversible. Recent research not yet taken into account: the actual situation is far worse - “Nothing short of transforming society will avert catastrophe… Requires a renewed emphasis on science and innovation” ***
World wastes about 88% of the energy it uses: absolutely no way to address the Emergency with current technology mix - The Climate Emergency is merely symptomatic of a much more ominous and immediate problem: the breakdown of our world’s energy foundations, in train for over 15 years.
All current classes of energy technologies are obsolete: internal combustion engines (ICE), turbines (steam, gas, wind turbines), photovoltaics (PVs), most batteries, all with far too low efficiencies.
Climate Emergency: COPxx processes, all current policies and ESG/“green” investments to “decarbonise with renewables” are bound to fail abysmally - no room left for more errors.
WE MUST ACT NOW AS IF IN 2091: We can’t afford to wait for the 2090s or even the 2050s to discover that 2020s decisions were wrong.
FTI anticipated this situation long ago: we have solutions to redesign how we access and use energy worldwide over 20 years, 100% sustainably = Net-Zero GHG by 2042.
The Prize: over €10 Trillion/year Total Accessible Market.

Translating Kiwi lessons from the 1st two oil shocks into the present situation

New Zealand was severely hit by the first two oil shocks, especially the second one in 1978. At the time, most of its oil came from Iran… oil import costs jumped from rather negligible to over 20% of export earnings, transport fuels supplies dropped by more than 10%…
There were alternate car-free days (based on odd or even number plates), petrol stations operated on severely reduced hours and were shut during weekends… all grossly unpopular.
In response to the brutal challenges, a little-known body, the NZ Energy Research & Development Committee (NZERDC) catalysed an Initiative that proved extremely beneficial to the country - the creation of a new industry from scratch (Compressed Natural Gas for transport - CNG), resulting in substantial transport cost reductions, increased energy independence, job creation, as well as exports of equipment and know-how globally.*
With CNG and other transport fuels initiatives, New Zealand made decisions and took actions in unconventional ways that were quick, to the point, and effective, when so many other countries did not. Unexpected problems were swiftly resolved. There were numerous successes and also some failures. Many crucial lessons were learned… then forgotten by most, but not all…
The Russian aggression of Ukraine has precipitated an abrupt energy supply discontinuity, in the EU and globally, that is far worse than what NZ experienced in 1978. The discontinuity was going to happen anyway, The war has advanced it and made it much more abrupt. The prospects for the next 5 years and beyond are dire.
In short, under the new situation, (1) an emergency response is urgently required beyond mere rationing, and (2) none of the current ways of dealing with the Climate Emergency and other ecological, social and financial threats can succeed and pursuing them will make matters far worse.
We now have major know-how advantages that NZ did not have back then, in 1978, that enable setting in train as a matter of emergency an other strategic course that can deliver, while there is sill time.
Our Initiative is built on the numerous Kiwi lessons learned then and since. It uses those lessons to leverage those know-how advantages to bring about and effective emergency response that addresses both energy crisis and the Climate Emergency, extending far beyond any “climate action.

New Zealand's experience of energy shocks

In response to the 2nd oil shock, from 1978 onwards and throughout the 1980s, New Zealand undertook two experiments:

The conversion of natural gas to methanol for exports and synthetic gasoline for local use (gas to liquids, GTL) - while technically a success, this proved a huge burden to Kiwi taxpayers & the plants ended-up sold at a drastic loss (although, politically the matters were disguised);
The creation of the CNG industry to rapidly substitute a local resource, natural gas, for imported oil - this proved successful and highly beneficial to the country

The GTL projects were initiated by a tight group of civil servants and business people who managed to convince the Government of the time:*

International industry actors had a rather dim view of the competencies of the New Zealand GTL decision-makers; and
They ruthlessly treated NZ as a “guinea pig”, knowing full well, ahead of time, that the project would cost Kiwi taxpayers dearly, which it did

At the instigation of the then Minister of Energy, the CNG initiative was entirely conducted outside Administration circles by a small, expert, problem solving, entrepreneurial task force that:

Operated as a virtual corporation on a very cost effective, lean “start-up” mode
Progressively involved all relevant stakeholders - academics & consultants who had demonstrated the initial feasibility, natural gas industry, automotive mechanics trade bodies re training and carrying out of CNG vehicle conversions, insurance industry, chains of petrol stations re CNG refuelling, Automobile Association, etc.
Swiftly solved all problems encountered - there was no time for extensive prototyping - development and implementation was carried out “on the hop” directly integrated in the industrialisation process
Monitored and managed the CNG Industry’s take-off, including marketing and negotiating all relevant matters
Achieved in five years what would normally have taken some 20 years, beating all expectations

The contrast between GTL and CNG could not be greater - we learned what not to do and what works in the face of an unforeseen emergency situation - we learned much more ever since - now is the time to bring those lessons to bear.

Lessons learned over the last 50 years

Government Administrations are expert at managing the present the short term

They are ill equipped to anticipate and respond to major threats, such as oil shocks (an understatement)
It is particularly difficult for them to address effectively unprecedented challenges like global warming, avalanche of weather extremes, pandemics, mass extinction, etc.
It is even more challenging to chart a safe course through the wholly uncharted waters on the downside of the Energy Seneca

The same applies to established industries and businesses

Solutions to major disruptions are always produced by small numbers of pioneers coming out of “left field” who:

Anticipate the threat(s) due to their specific knowledge and/or unusual circumstances
Produce new ways, methods, technologies due to inquisitive, unconventional minds (e.g. awareness of how natural gas was used for transport
during WWII in California and Italy or the example of how the Wright brothers developed heavier than air flight)
Manage to muster support from key politicians (e.g. the New Zealand Energy Minister who saw the CNG opportunity presented to him and embraced it but did not pass it on to his civil servants) and other backers, impact investors, philanthropists and/or industry rank-breakers
Demonstrate what can be done “outside the square” in problem solving mode
Do it in a way that can rapidly go viral

What does not work:

Taxes, subsidies, cap and trade, “solutions in search of a problem”, “solutions that create problems”, and solutions that address the wrong question (e.g. photovoltaics and wind to combat global warming when they stand to worsen the problem and when the core matters are abysmal energy inefficiencies of all legacy systems and the loss of access to key energy resources).

Solutions must:

Clearly benefit all stakeholders, including legacies (e.g. in the CNG case, the retail gas industry and networks of petrol stations)
Cost substantially less than the old ways
Entail no upfront capital costs for end-user to convert from the old to the new
Entail no hassle for end-user to convert from the old to the new
Be obvious to all once demonstrated (regardless of established beliefs or ideologies - i.e. no need to be “green”)
In an emergency keep “the wheels running”: enable retrofitting existing systems and an as smooth as possible transition

The Solution

Based on some 50 years of research, an absolute prerequisite to unlock the present situation is to:

Shift from the current 88% energy wastage to well over 200% productive use of harvested energy, emulating what life on Earth has been doing for some 3.8 billion years
In the short-term emergency, focus on doing three times more with twice less scarce and expensive resources (natural gas, oil)
In the longer-term, focus on shifting to the sole remaining, large viable pool of energy: harvesting efficiently the direct solar influx, at or near the point-of-use, using the same way of doing three times more with twice less
In short, create a new sustainable, self-powering, energy supply chain operating at over 200% performance levels, substantially extending currently available, scarce fossil resources (e.g. natural gas, oil) by leveraging ambient energy, enabling a smooth transition to 100% solar, based but retaining high energy density molecules derived from oil and biomass as energy storage and carriers for transport
Do it in intelligently networked fashion
Additionally, use residual waste heat for mass, highly distributed, Direct Atmospheric CO2 Capture (DAC), storage and reuse, as a key means of containing global warming (combined with reforestation, soil rehabilitation and weathering of CO2 absorbing calcium and magnesium silicates rocks such as olivine bearing rocks like basalt)

Achieving the above is a prerequisite to solving all other Energy Seneca issues

All required component technologies are available and proven

It is their integration that is novel.

This integration is our focus

To Summarise

The key challenge of the 21st century is thermodynamic:

The present global oil, energy and climate situation entails an urgent “Demand-for-something-else”, that few have yet identified and that must be met within 10 years
The Fourth Transition Initiative has detailed assessments, evaluations and answers

Existing legacies and alternatives can’t address this challenge:

Existing legacies systems have built-in inefficiencies that are roadblocks
Although some components of new energy supply and transport technologies are part of the solutions, they can’t scale, cannot achieve the required self-powering supply chain status within the remaining timeframe, and most stand to make matters far worse
Within 10 years radical solutions that remove existing legacy roadblocks have to be set in place to substitute for the old systems

We and our partners in the EU and Australia have the required expertise and agile entrepreneurship, without the conservatism of established mainstream players

The thermodynamic challenge will be solved “bottom up” - existing “top down” thinking will not get us there (too slow, too expensive)
nGeni’s integrated nGeni technology class, business and financial models enable rapidly reconfiguring existing energy systems, including via retrofitting existing stationary facilities and vehicles
The prime focus on efficiency enables a different trajectory (low cost, rapid uptake)
There are powerful synergies with other businesses to be seized upon and developed